The opportunistic Xmas commercials have started. Holiday plans are beginning to form for the hoi polloi. And here I am, with you, scratching my head at how 2015 could be so near to its conclusion.
Is it the symptom of living life well, that it passes with such velocity? Or am I simply not paying attention to the little details? So busy chasing the brass ring, I'm missing the minutiae?
What a harrowing thought.
As a remedy, now seems to be an opportune time to take a quick breath, and look over our shoulders. See where the current has taken us. I'm navigating from my '2015 Year In Review' issue (which I wrote back in December), to revisit a few of my predictions, and get a feel for what exactly happened over the last eleven months.
BIGGEST BOX OFFICE DRAW OF 2015
My original prediction was: 'Squaring off in an epic battle between two film titans, is the sequel to the $1.5 billion grossing original, 'Avengers 2: Age of Ultron', and the hugely anticipated first film under the new Disney regime 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens...Even 'Batman versus Superman' moved to a 2016 release to avoid these two blockbusters. Understandable, given I expect Star Wars VII, with its huge active fanbase, to rule the 2015 box office.'
I missed a beat on this prognostication, by not giving due credit to the behemoth that 'Jurassic World' would become. Genetically modified dinosaurs drove the film all the way to third highest grossing of all time.
But wait.
While it hasn't been released yet, ticket presales and forecasting have 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' predicted to take US$2BN at the global box office. A number that large, would usurp 'Jurassic World' for the third highest grossing film of all time, and almost reach 'Titanic' in second spot.
I think this prediction is close enough to claim.
OSCAR WINNER FOR BEST PICTURE 2015
My original prediction was: 'My very uncertain Oscar 'best film' pick, based purely on the strength of the reviews around direction and performance, is 'Birdman'.'
Nailed it.
BEST PICTURE WINNER AT THE 2015 AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY AWARDS (AACTAs)
My original prediction was: 'The real battle, however, seems to be forming between the critics' darling and the star turn. 'The Babadook', the little Australian horror film that has wowed critics around the world, and 'The Water Diviner', Russell Crowe's directorial debut.'
I couldn't split the two, but I expected 'The Water Diviner' to squeak ahead due to star power. Cynical I know.
Wouldn't you know it, they had a tie. I'm claiming this one too.
INCREASED COMPETITION BETWEEN STREAMING VIDEO PROVIDERS IS GOOD FOR AUSTRALIA
My original prediction was: 'There will at least be one winner amidst the collisions between streaming video providers: the paying audiences. Competition can only help the situation for used and abused Australian audiences.'
Netflix and Stan subscriptions are up significantly. Content catalogues are growing. There is a plethora of choice for Australian audiences to watch screen stories.
What was the result?
Piracy is dropping significantly.
I'd say that's another accurate prediction. I'm on a serious roll here.
THE ARRIVAL OF CHALLENGERS TO YOUTUBE, WHO ARE THEN CRUSHED BY GOOGLE
My original prediction was: 'On an international level, the first real challengers (i.e. Vessel.com) to Youtube will arise in 2015...and be crushed under Google's boot heel.'
Snake eyes. I missed on this one.
In my defence, the competitor I identified, 'Vessel', has already significantly modified their business model from the one they launched with; not a great sign for their vitality. Vessel originally proposed a Youtube parallel, with a free tier, but accompanied by a paid premium tier. Instead, the fledgling service now simply offers a one month free trial and then a paid-only service.
The ultimate question will be, why would people pay for short videos on Vessel, albeit from their stable of poached Youtube superstars, when Youtube is free?
In the meantime, Youtube have also announced Youtube-RED, a paid version of their service. Will this put Youtube and Vessel on a collision course?
The answer to that question is unclear, given Youtube is ubiquitous while Vessel is still defining its audience. It's a matter of fact, however, that Vessel just raised US$75 million in additional investment from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, so it would hardly be accurate for me to say that 'Google has crushed them under their boot heel'...even if their business model is ultimately doomed.
Still, four out of five predictions is more accurate than your average street tarot reader.
SMART TV BECOMES THE NEW FOCUS
My original prediction was: 'Meanwhile in 2015, while all of the focus has been on the content providers, the technology giants will suddenly stumble themselves into genuine relevancy again...People want content, need convenience and will pay for it, clearly. The user experience on smart TV's and smart TV enabling devices will become just as important in 2015 to the content makers, as it will be for audiences.'
There was so little activity in this space for six months, I almost forgot I had mentioned it.
And then, the Apple TV relaunch.
The first major revamp of the Apple TV in years, with an improved user interface and a vastly enhanced remote control; including Siri voice response and a touch pad.
Apple doesn't move unless it spots an opening in the market. For the Apple TV relaunch, they moved in a big way.
Perhaps they listened to me? Regardless, this prediction was definitely proven correct.
FLEXIBLE PRICING TRIALED IN CINEMAS
My original prediction was: '...someone, somewhere will trial flexible pricing in cinemas in 2015.'
I'm still ahead of the curve on this one, unfortunately.
There is growing support for the flexible pricing concept, where a low budget indie film should be cheaper at the cinemas than a blockbuster, with even the Lionsgate CEO (makers of The Hunger Games films) supporting the idea. The intent is to give audiences a real economic choice, rather than a regressive flat rate for every cinema ticket, and therefore bolster the general attendance while giving all films a fighting chance to be seen.
But there is still plenty of resistance to such a concept, particularly from the old world powers in the film industry. The idea would turn decades of cinema pricing theory on it's head, which is a mortal sin in a fairly risk-averse business.
So, while I'm sure it will happen eventually, 2015 will not be the year.
2015 AS A YEAR OF OPPORTUNITY, RATHER THAN ADVERSITY
My original prediction was: 'Opportunity, in fact, is the real theme of 2015. 2015 will be a year of opportunities, if you're willing to build and satisfy your audience.'
While this might seem a fairly generic statement now, I was actually responding to some of the doomsday chatter around the lingering worldwide economic turbulence, the drop in cinema attendance/box office, and the naysayers of the new subscription video streaming models as a panacea to piracy.
Perhaps with somewhat rose-coloured glasses, I could see that a number of the tremors the screen industry had been experiencing were abating. But did they cease altogether?
Well, the 2015 U.S. summer box office was officially the second largest haul ever. China's share of the global box office is booming. Australia's 2015 box office broke the record for the share derived from Australian films. Australian SVOD provider Stan has begun commissioning local content, and on the world stage, Netflix commissioned its first feature film, 'Beasts of No Nation'. While time will eventually reveal all, at this point 2015 is also on track to be the biggest box office total ever.
Sounds fairly opportune to me. I'll tick this one as well.
So, there you have it. The year which has passed with a flurry, perhaps even seeming to be devoid of noteworthy milestones, has been a plethora of shattered records and successes instead.
But how do we build the culture, both personally and in the infrastructure around us, that will allow us to see these positive moments, amidst the toil, in real time?
Don't the roses deserve to be smelt, occasionally?
Seems like a worthy goal for next year.
- - - - - - - - -
WANT TO COMMENT? THEN BECOME A SUBSCRIBER AND ALSO GET THIS WHIMSICALLY OPTIMISTIC NEWSLETTER STRAIGHT TO YOUR EMAIL.
http://www.openingactfilms.com/contact-us.html
I'm still ahead of the curve on this one, unfortunately.
There is growing support for the flexible pricing concept, where a low budget indie film should be cheaper at the cinemas than a blockbuster, with even the Lionsgate CEO (makers of The Hunger Games films) supporting the idea. The intent is to give audiences a real economic choice, rather than a regressive flat rate for every cinema ticket, and therefore bolster the general attendance while giving all films a fighting chance to be seen.
But there is still plenty of resistance to such a concept, particularly from the old world powers in the film industry. The idea would turn decades of cinema pricing theory on it's head, which is a mortal sin in a fairly risk-averse business.
So, while I'm sure it will happen eventually, 2015 will not be the year.
2015 AS A YEAR OF OPPORTUNITY, RATHER THAN ADVERSITY
My original prediction was: 'Opportunity, in fact, is the real theme of 2015. 2015 will be a year of opportunities, if you're willing to build and satisfy your audience.'
While this might seem a fairly generic statement now, I was actually responding to some of the doomsday chatter around the lingering worldwide economic turbulence, the drop in cinema attendance/box office, and the naysayers of the new subscription video streaming models as a panacea to piracy.
Perhaps with somewhat rose-coloured glasses, I could see that a number of the tremors the screen industry had been experiencing were abating. But did they cease altogether?
Well, the 2015 U.S. summer box office was officially the second largest haul ever. China's share of the global box office is booming. Australia's 2015 box office broke the record for the share derived from Australian films. Australian SVOD provider Stan has begun commissioning local content, and on the world stage, Netflix commissioned its first feature film, 'Beasts of No Nation'. While time will eventually reveal all, at this point 2015 is also on track to be the biggest box office total ever.
Sounds fairly opportune to me. I'll tick this one as well.
So, there you have it. The year which has passed with a flurry, perhaps even seeming to be devoid of noteworthy milestones, has been a plethora of shattered records and successes instead.
But how do we build the culture, both personally and in the infrastructure around us, that will allow us to see these positive moments, amidst the toil, in real time?
Don't the roses deserve to be smelt, occasionally?
Seems like a worthy goal for next year.
- - - - - - - - -
WANT TO COMMENT? THEN BECOME A SUBSCRIBER AND ALSO GET THIS WHIMSICALLY OPTIMISTIC NEWSLETTER STRAIGHT TO YOUR EMAIL.
http://www.openingactfilms.com/contact-us.html
